...East Texas east across Mississippi... As heights fall across the south-central U.S. and the surface cold front advances steadily eastward, a moist/very modestly unstable pre-frontal airmass is expected to evolve across the area. Despite the weak lapse rates/instability, a very strong/favorably veering flow field with height is progged across the warm sector, supportive of organized/rotating storms. While the lack of more favorable thermodynamics should limit overall severe risk, late morning/early afternoon storms may intensify across portions of East Texas and across the Arklatex region. Given the kinematic environment, risk for a couple of tornadoes may evolve, though uncertain due to the overall lack of CAPE expected. Locally damaging winds will also be possible -- particularly if some linear/upscale growth can occur. This risk should spread across the lower Mississippi Valley region during the evening/overnight, though an eventual decrease in storm intensity/coverage is expected as the airmass quality further diminishes with eastward extent.
Post by thermalwind on Nov 28, 2019 9:02:03 GMT -6
Low CAPE/high shear.
Must be getting close to winter. Quick look at GFS soundings and we got some instability to work with, but also a prominent inversion a little above the ground (like 850mb ish). Probably take another look tomorrow and see what the CAMs are working with.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
So far it's looking like this will push through after the LSU/A&M game.
From this morning's HWO:
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southeast Louisiana...South Mississippi and the adjacent coastal waters.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
No hazardous weather is expected.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
The next cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will move from west to east across through the entire area Saturday night through Sunday morning. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather along and west of a line from Bogalusa, LA to Morgan City, LA - with a Marginal Risk for the rest of the area. The main threats will be damaging straight line winds, hail, and an isolated tornado.
Small Craft advisories will likely be necessary Sunday night into Monday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested Saturday night through Sunday morning.