No real hurricane model support, except a few of the short term mesoscale models start to develop a low a few hundred miles south of Lafayette in the Gulf of Mexico in about 24hrs from now. Then it moves towards Pensacola, FL area in about 84hrs or so. Doesn't amount to much of anything, except rainfall basically.
Of course, it bares watching as anything is possible and stranger things have happened but all in all, no current reasons to be overly concerned with this.
GCWX Board Member Spotter Network Trained Emergency Medical Technician 911 Emergency Operator
They're just storms firing off ahead of the frontal boundary approaching. There's nothing currently in the Gulf. The low chance over the next 5 days is due to the front entering the Gulf and sitting there for a while. Sometimes areas of low pressure develop along an old frontal boundary and eventually spin up.
Post by grisairgasm on Jul 24, 2019 11:50:49 GMT -6
A weak surface low is likely the next few days IMO. It will immediately have to deal with dry air and shear along the trough. Then there is proximity to land and time over the water. I would be surprised by any significant development before Saturday. Obviously the atmosphere will change back to a normal summer pattern towards the weekend. Always an eye on a boiling Gulf.
SKYSUMMIT President | Director of OperationsAdministrator
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A nearly stationary frontal system and a weak area of low pressure are producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers across the northern and central Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to drift northward, and development appears unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.