Post by saintlybraves on Dec 28, 2018 17:37:23 GMT -6
I realize this is probably one of the most important forecast, but there must be a reason NOT 1 met is mentioning the timing of the rain for Monday. Is that because nobody has and idea? Or is it bad news and they don't want to mention it? Any thoughts on this forecast?
A cyclone will evolve over the lower to mid MS Valley region early Monday in response to forcing accompanying a northeast-ejecting but deamplifying shortwave trough. Trailing cold front should extend from a weak low in AR southwest through eastern TX at the start of the period, before continuing into the southeast U.S. as the cyclone develops northeastward through the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. A corridor of modifying Gulf air with mid 60s F dewpoints should advect northward through pre-frontal warm sector along an intense (70 kt) southerly low level jet. This process will contribute to some destabilization, but CAPE will remain very marginal (less than 500 J/kg) owing to widespread clouds and weak mid-level lapse rates. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing along the warm conveyor belt from eastern TX/LA into AR, and some intensification might occur during the day as this band continues east and interacts with the moistening boundary layer, though a near-surface stable layer could persist especially with northward extend toward the TN Valley. Though wind profiles will be favorable for organized severe storms, expected weak thermodynamic environment will remain a limiting factor. Nevertheless, some potential will exist for some of the convection to organize into mostly low-topped line segments capable of a few locally strong wind gusts later in the day into the early evening.
CWOP ID: DW2721, CoCoRaHs Station: LA-TG-11 NWS's Ponchatoula/Hammond Area's COOP Member, Station ID 16-7425-08, PONL1