Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Aug 2, 2017 22:55:39 GMT -6
The angle that this needs to be looked at is the 0z GFS/CMC have a Cape Verde hurricane just north of the Greater Antilles in 10 days. The models also agree on a pretty potent Bermuda ridge that could steer this towards land in the long range. The UKMET also has the system but is much further south, and the 0z ECM has yet to come out but is also showing a similar scenario.
This needs to watched closely, especially when you consider the CMC/GFS has a significant tendency for right leaning tracks in the longer range.
Last Edit: Aug 13, 2017 14:32:04 GMT -6 by SKYSUMMIT
Expect this to get invested sometime tomorrow once it's fully over water.
A large area of showers and thunderstorms near the west coast of Africa is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west- northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered about 500 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with a vigorous tropical wave. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$ Forecaster Stewart
Vice President - StormCast | Owner - Helicity Designs
So the 00z Euro and most of its ensembles failed to develop this due to what looks like dry air, but the rest of the models are hanging on for now. This is literally exactly what happened with 99L (later Hermine) last year, in the same spot.
Wasn't this the one going into the Bay of Campeche? Why are most of the models turning out to sea?
No. That's a separate system. Ignore the models sending this one out to sea. It's too early to know any of that.
At one point this season, someone gave a brief -- but great -- overview of each of the models (i.e. "Models" for Dummies). If you're out there and recall, please repost whenever you have a sec. I'd love to copy it and have it on hand for reference. Thanks!
I am quite confident this will likely develop. We are at a crossroads as to different scenarios. Either a system that achieves tropical storm status but then fails to deepen and possibly even dissipates, or a long-tracked Cape Verde hurricane. Given that the waters are hot and we are now in August, either is possible. Of course, it could also fail to develop, but I kind of doubt that.
A vigorous tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers more than 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week over the eastern or central tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system is forecast to move toward the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Vice President - StormCast | Owner - Helicity Designs
coffeecups: Sorry again. I keep forgetting to put lol and/or emoticoms. lol----lol
Oct 10, 2017 15:17:43 GMT -6
coffeecups: I here that s***** and possibly winter will be canceled this year.
Oct 10, 2017 15:09:40 GMT -6
nancyann: My power has returned, thank you so much for these forums. This was my first hurricane ;)
Oct 8, 2017 10:21:52 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: It's amazing how mentally drained these storms make us. Once he made landfall last night, I crashed and didn't wake up until 930am...the most I've slept in months LOL
Oct 8, 2017 10:08:59 GMT -6
SKYSUMMIT: Well that was fun. Hopefully that's the last gulf threat for us (although I do think we'll have 1 more), and we can start looking to Canada for some arctic blasts.
Oct 8, 2017 10:05:42 GMT -6
nolachic: Trying to figure out how to make a nola post about vodka and pop tarts in the proper vernacular [and yes, I had to spell check that big a$$ word]
Oct 7, 2017 21:38:52 GMT -6
T-man: I bet your mom and them got some
Oct 7, 2017 21:04:57 GMT -6
PinkFreud: Yes, now if I only had some nice, cold ersters!
Oct 7, 2017 20:58:51 GMT -6
nolachic: You mean you burled em?
Oct 7, 2017 20:27:38 GMT -6
PinkFreud: Hehehe, I boiled peanuts
Oct 7, 2017 20:23:02 GMT -6
nolachic: MODS - I will delete the post or you can if you deem inappropriate.
Oct 7, 2017 20:14:57 GMT -6
coffeecups: I'll take spaghetti any day of the week and any time!
Oct 7, 2017 17:15:09 GMT -6
allicat1214: byujewel: Yum! I'll be right over!!
Oct 7, 2017 15:51:47 GMT -6
byujewel: I just cooked a spaghetti and the jambalaya is almost done. Taking a break then I’m doing the corn soup and potato salad next.
Oct 7, 2017 15:30:59 GMT -6
coffeecups: Pink, I forgot the lol lol
Oct 7, 2017 15:15:20 GMT -6
coffeecups: Hey, Pinkfreud, what is that address? Sounds better than my peanut butter (just don't tell my wife).
Oct 7, 2017 15:14:46 GMT -6
dixielou: Now I'm craving a bologna and cheese sandwich.
Oct 7, 2017 15:14:40 GMT -6
PinkFreud: I forgot to get Pop Tarts but did get double stuff Oreos and birthday cake Oreos! Bunny Bread, check, wine and vodka, check!
Oct 7, 2017 14:06:51 GMT -6
T-man: I got my generator hooked up, all the wires run so when we lose power I can get lights, TV etc. back on.
Oct 7, 2017 14:02:38 GMT -6
nolachic: Got it T. Chips and a pickle as well!
Oct 7, 2017 14:01:32 GMT -6