(Ecmwf)European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This model runs to 7 days and provides data at 24 hour intervals for sea level pressure, 850 mb winds and temperatures and 500 mb heights. It is usually a confidence model
All of my post, unless stated otherwise are opinionated and are in no way an official forecast.
The 12Z Euro and Canadian models are completely opposite of the 12Z GFS. The Euro particularly raises an eyebrow when looking ahead to next weekend. We know that a strong Canadian front will sweep across the Lone Star State on Tuesday with much chillier temperature late next week. The Euro suggests two cold upper air disturbances passing over our Region after the cold air is in place. Typically in early February IF we can get and shortwave passing over cold air at the surface, interesting things can develop. Looks like a long week of watching the various computer schemes to see if this is a mirage or a real potential.
Post by DYLAN FEDERICO on Jan 31, 2016 16:40:26 GMT -6
The 12z ECMWF and CMC are interesting. But are not cold enough for a Gulf Coast winter storm around Mardi Gras at this time. The GFS however, shows a brutal arctic cold outbreak with a hard freeze for our area.
Post by HarahanTim on Jan 31, 2016 18:27:45 GMT -6
As Zack mentioned above, the 12z GFS dropped the moisture. The 18z, brought some of it back, early in the day, but not as much as earlier runs were showing. Hopefully, as we approach 7 days out, we start getting some consistency.
The last two GFS runs, continue to keep Mardi Gras in the clear, but chilly. Last night's run, has the gulf low passing far SE in the gulf on Sunday, missing the central gulf coast. This morning's run, not as parade friendly, as it will give us a wet day Sunday. To be continued!